Panic demand of the hottest coal boosts the rise o

2022-08-02
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The "panic demand" of coal boosts the rise of coal price. The two sides of coal and electricity fall into a game over whether to limit production.

the "panic demand" of coal boosts the rise of coal price. The two sides of coal and electricity fall into a game over whether to limit production.

China Construction Machinery Information

the "two sessions" are approaching, the power of coal mine safety inspection is increasing, and some coal mines have not resumed production. At the same time, affected by the expectation of coal production restriction, the downstream demand increases, and the coal price shows a trend of stopping falling and warming up

the industry believes that with the recent stabilization or recovery of the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region, some "panic" demand has emerged rapidly

it should be mentioned that at present, the coal production restriction scheme concerned by the market is pending, and both coal and power companies are caught in a game

due to the rebound of coal prices last year, the performance of coal enterprises has turned around, while power enterprises are in trouble

analysts said that the large coal enterprises supported the restoration of 276 working days to achieve production restriction and price protection, while the power enterprises opposed it, but the voices were high. It is expected that it will be difficult to fully implement the coal production restriction system in 2017

the "panic demand" of coal boosted the rise of coal price

after the Spring Festival, after a short downturn, the coal price began to rise again due to the shortage of supply

in the latest phase, the price of 5500 kcal power coal in Qinhuangdao was 605 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month on month, and the price of 5000 kcal power coal was 535 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month on month. So far, the transaction price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has ended the continuous decline since early november2016

according to zhuochuang information, the trend of domestic thermal coal market in February was first suppressed and then increased, and the coal price began to stop falling and recover in the middle and late ten days. At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival just passed, the domestic thermal coal market had a strong holiday atmosphere. The operating rate of the main producing areas and downstream coal enterprises was low. Some coal mines were in inventory before the year of the Qing Dynasty. The coal price was reduced slightly. The market price of the northern port was also reduced slightly due to the low downstream demand

however, since the middle of February, the operating rate of downstream factories has gradually returned to the normal level, while some coal mines in the production area have not resumed production so far due to the upcoming convening of the two sessions. The enthusiasm of coal enterprises to ship to the port has been reduced, and the coal inventory in the northern port has continued to decline. In the short term, the shortage of coal supply has led to an increase of 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton in the port coal price

jingwenjuan, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told securities that due to the shortage of spot resources in northern ports, most users in the downstream directly go to the production area for coal mining, and most large mines have the phenomenon of "car and other coal". The increase in demand has boosted the price of coal in the production area

it is worth noting that on March 1, the Ministry of land and Resources announced that the three departments, including the Ministry of land and resources, will carry out special inspection and rectification actions for coal mining beyond the boundary from March 5 to August. If a coal mine refuses to return to its mining area, its mining license shall be revoked; In case of over layer and over boundary mining, the coal mine shall be ordered to stop production for rectification and imposed a fine. In case of over layer and over boundary mining twice within three months, the local government shall be requested to close it down

some analysts believe that due to the upgrading of coal mine inspection, many coal mines dare not easily resume production, which will also support coal prices to a certain extent

many people in the industry also told securities that due to the impact of factors such as the coal enterprises may resume the 276 day production restriction system and the increased inspection of coal mine safety production, especially with the recent stabilization or recovery of the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region, some "panic" demand has emerged rapidly

both coal and electricity companies are in a game over whether to limit production. In fact, after the heating season ends in mid March, the key factor determining the trend of coal prices is whether to implement the coal production restriction system

it is understood that the coal production restriction scheme mainly includes: after the heating season ends, the coal mine is allowed to produce at a rate of 330 working days/year to 276 working days/year; Or some radical investors such as trian fund and third point LLC of coal mines are important promoters of the merger and split of Dow and DuPont. The production is based on 330 working days, while others are based on 276 working days. The plan has not been determined

previously, securities also reported on this. Shenhua and China Coal both "supported" coal production restriction and submitted plans to the national development and Reform Commission. China Coal Association convened large coal enterprises to discuss this issue

however, up to now, the national development and Reform Commission has not replied whether to implement the coal production restriction

Dengshun, a coal researcher of integrated futures, told securities that it is very possible to implement production restriction, but the scope and intensity of implementation still depend on the approval

coal enterprises hope to limit production so as to ensure that the coal price does not fall, while power enterprises oppose to limit production and hope that the coal price will fall. Coal and power companies are once again in conflict because of different interest demands

benefiting from the sharp rise in coal prices, the performance of coal enterprises has been greatly improved. Recently, the data released by the China Coal Association showed that the total profit of the national coal enterprises after subsidies in 2016 was 32.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 363.7%, and a net loss of 4.29 billion yuan in the same period last year

as the coal price began to rebound in the second half of 2016, the performance of power enterprises last year was not satisfactory, and many power enterprises even fell into losses. According to the statistics of the securities, more than 50% of the listed power enterprises gave early warning of their performance last year

in addition to poor performance due to higher costs, power enterprises also face difficulties such as slowing demand and overcapacity. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that power enterprises oppose coal production restriction

it is reported that some power enterprises have reported the current coal supply situation and thermal power operation to the relevant departments, requiring the prudent implementation or cessation of the production restriction system

jingwenjuan said that at present, the market is focusing on whether 276 working days can be implemented. Large coal enterprises relatively support the restoration of 276 working days to achieve production limitation and price protection, while downstream power plants have a high voice for relaxing the 276 working day system. It is expected that it will be difficult for the coal industry to fully implement the 276 working day system in 2017

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