The hottest steel export is expected to shrink by

2022-08-17
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Steel exports are expected to shrink by 10% - 15%

the COVID-19 continues to spread worldwide, which undoubtedly has an impact on China's steel exports, thereby affecting steel demand. Based on the caliber of crude steel, in 2019, China's net export of crude steel was 52.29 million tons, accounting for 5.2% of the annual output. From the perspective of large export categories, China's steel exports are mainly plates. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the COVID-19 continues to spread all over the world, which undoubtedly has an impact on China's steel exports, thereby affecting steel demand

based on the caliber of crude steel, in 2019, China's net export of crude steel was 52.29 million tons, accounting for 5.2% of the annual output. From the perspective of large export categories, China's steel exports are mainly plates. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2019, China exported 38.48 million tons of plates, accounting for 60% of steel exports. In addition, 15% of bars, 14% of pipes and 5% of angle profiles. The export of plates is subdivided. The plates with large export volume mainly include coated plates (32%), medium thick and wide steel strips (23%), coated plates (17%) and medium plates (14%). In terms of regional distribution, China's steel exports mainly flow to Southeast Asia and Africa, a large proportion to South Korea, while Europe, America and Oceania account for only 10%

compared with the worrying output and export data of 2019, the export volume of crude steel accounts for about 7% of the total output. The export volume of plates with the largest export volume accounts for 10.9%. Among them, as a kind of plate, the export of hot-rolled coil accounts for about 3.8%; Rebar exports accounted for a relatively low proportion, only 2.1%. Obviously, the demand impact of overseas epidemic fermentation on hot coil, cold coil and other plates is significantly greater than that of deformed steel bars and other construction steels

although the proportion of direct exports of steel is not large, and the export flow to Europe and the United States and other countries has the price advantage of the rapid development of the epidemic: the proportion of private-equity enterprise areas is relatively small, but we need to consider the indirect export volume of steel corresponding to the export volume of steel products

combing the data of the General Administration of customs, we can classify steel products into four categories: mechanical equipment, household appliances, automobiles, ships and containers, and summarize their respective export volume in 2019. After that, combined with the domestic production and market scale of the four categories of commodities in 2019, the export proportion of these four categories of steel products can be calculated respectively. Among them, the export proportion of the shipping and container industry is very large, accounting for 94.5% of all places where Americans have taken major measures to expand the American middle class and develop their own economy and provide opportunities for everyone. The subsequent new orders are bound to be impacted by the overseas epidemic, but the response may lag behind. In addition, the proportion of home appliance exports is not small, and nearly 40% of export demand may be impacted. Relatively speaking, the export proportion of the automobile industry is small, only about 5%; The export proportion of mechanical equipment is about 13%, which is not high. If it is subdivided into construction machinery, the export proportion will increase slightly to 16%

after obtaining the export proportion of the four categories of steel products, and then weighted average according to the weight of these four categories of steel products in the total steel consumption, it can be estimated that the indirect export proportion of steel products formed is about 19.3%. This proportion is obviously much higher than that of direct steel exports. In addition, the export objects of China's steel products are more dispersed than steel exports, and the proportion of steel products flowing to Europe and the United States has also increased. For example, the proportion of rolling bearings exported to Europe and the United States in 2019 is close to 30%. It can be seen that the overseas epidemic in Europe and the United States has intensified, and the impact on the indirect export of steel is more worthy of vigilance

after estimating the proportion of indirect steel exports, combined with the proportion of direct exports, further evaluate the comprehensive proportion of China's steel exports/output. The proportion of steel products in the downstream consumption of the whole steel is about 36.5%, and most of them still flow to the domestic construction industry. Considering the direct export proportion of 6.9% of steel, it can be weighted to estimate that the comprehensive export proportion of the whole steel industry is about 13.9%

according to the impact time of twoorthree quarters and the 20% decline in production, the continuous fermentation of overseas epidemic and the replacement of spare parts still cause users to have many problems in the use process, and the impact on the export of China's steel industry (including direct export and indirect export) is 10% - 15%. Combined with the previous data that the comprehensive export volume of steel accounted for about 13.9% of the total output, the impact on China's total steel demand is expected to be 1.3% - 2.1%, which means that the construction industry needs to achieve an additional growth of 3.6% to fully hedge the negative impact of exports. Therefore, although hot-rolled coil and other plates have fallen to the cost line, in the medium and long term, the price trend of plates is still not optimistic

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